Progresses and challenges in probabilistic modeling of tropical storm risks

Abstract

Standard methodologies for the probabilistic modeling of tropical storm events and associated risks have been established in the last few decades. Following the methodologies a number of probabilistic models have been developed and these models have been widely applied in practice; such as assessments of design wind loads for structures and estimations of insurance portfolio losses. In spite of the significant improvements of the methodologies as well as the models, however, there are still possibilities for further improvements. Furthermore, there is a gap between the risk assessment by means of the models and the use of the assessed risks in practical decision making. On the other hand, possibilities to utilize the probabilistic models beyond the classical applications have been recently investigated; e.g. applications to real-time decision making for evacuation of people and assets.

This mini-symposium aims at addressing future challenges and directions to further develop the methodologies and models and to fill the gap between the use of the models and practical decision making as well as identifying potential future applications of the models. For this purpose, the recent progresses and applications as well as the limitations of the probabilistic modeling of tropical storm risks are investigated. In order to address the issues above from a broader perspective, the papers in this mini-symposium are presented from different industries and academic fields.

Organizers

Dr. Kazuyoshi Nishijima, ETH Zurich, Switzerland, (nishijima@ibk.baug.ethz.ch)
Prof. Jean-Paul Pinelli, Florida Institute of Technology